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| The Forcast Model of Yellow Water Disease in Mud Crab Scylla serrata |
| FENG Zhen-fei,WANG Guo-liang,NI Hai-er |
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Abstract It is very important to forecast yellow water disease leading to mass loss of mud crab Scylla serrata in culture ponds. According to the data Collected by monitoring station during the occurrence and spread of the disease, the survey of the correlation between the yellow water disease morbidity in the mud crab and culture environment factors revealed that there were three environment factors affecting the epidemic of the disease:rainfall, quantity of Vibrio and salinity change. With these important environment factors successfully set up one multiple linear regression forecasting model,(Y) =-0.088+0.00026TV+7.179 SC. And this forecasting model is tested by Fvalue with good results, so it can be applied to forecast the morbidity of mud crab caused by the yellow water disease.
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Received: 25 December 2009
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