Uncertainties of Parameters Associated with Stock Assessment for Chub Mackerel Pneumatophorus japonicus Based on JABBA
TIAN Zhipan1, MA Qiuyun1, ZHANG Yunfei2, TIAN Siquan1,3,4
1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; 2. Natural History Research Center, Shanghai Science & Technology Museum, Shanghai 200041, China; 3. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China; 4. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China
Abstract：To better understand the current stock status and to keep sustainable development of fishery, it is essential to conduct scientific fishery stock assessment for chub mackerel Pneumatophorus japonicus. Based on the catch and effort data of the China Fishery Statistical Yearbook from 1979 to 2019, we conducted the stock assessment for chub mackerel and explored the effects of uncertainties of input data and model parameters via sensitivity analysis in Bayesian state-space production model(Just Another Bayesian Biomass Model, JABBA). The results showed that the maximum sustainable yield is 4 650 000 t, current stock has an 83% probability being in a healthy status, and neither overfishing nor overfished is happening (B2019/BMSY =1.160, F2019/FMSY =0.773). Results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the prior distribution of the intrinsic growth rate and the initial depletion level basically do not affect stock assessment results. When the catchability coefficient maintains a constant annual increase, stock status estimate could worsen, changing from healthy to overfishing. The mis-report of catch does not affect stock status estimate, and including the number of fishermen in effort data could obtain more reasonable stock assessment results. In the process of conservation and management for chub mackerel in the coastal waters of China, it is essential to focus on the quality of catch data and the selection of effort data to improve the accuracy of stock assessment results and to reduce uncertainty.
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2022, Vol. 41 
