Global Spatial Distribution Prediction of Whale Sharks and Future Conservation Needs Based on Integrated Species Distribution Models
WANG Xiao1,2, LIU Kaiyu2, LI Zengguang1,3,4, WAN Rong1,3,4, ZHAO Linlin2
1. College of Marine Biological Resources and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; 2. First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266000, China; 3. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; 4. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
Abstract：The whale shark Rhincodon typus as the largest extant fish species on earth, with a distribution range spanning from the equator to subtropical and temperate waters. It plays a crucial role in maintaining the health of marine ecosystems. In order to comprehensively understand the spatial distribution pattern of whale shark and explore the relationship between different environmental factors and their distribution, the potential distribution area of whale shark was predicted under current and future climate change scenarios by an integrated species distribution model containing 10 modeling algorithms and relationship between six environmental variables, including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a concentration, distance from shore and water depth and whale shark occurrence record points (from OBIS, GBIF, and iNarural databases) were analyzed to explore the impact of human activities (e.g., fishing pressure) on whale shark distribution. The results showed that three environmental factors including sea surface temperature, distance from shore, and surface chlorophyll-a concentration played a significant role in determining whale shark distribution. The potential habitat of whale sharks was found to be primarily concentrated in tropical and subtropical coastal waters, including regions such as Southeast Asia, northern Australia, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, eastern Brazil, and the Atlantic offshore areas according to the model prediction. Some ecological niche differentiation was observed between the two whale shark populations (Atlantic and Indian Ocean-Pacific populations). The distribution range of whale sharks was expected to expand towards higher-latitude waters under future climate scenarios. Furthermore, an analysis of the overlap between whale shark distribution and fishing pressure indicates that the whale sharks were more vulnerable to human fishing in the western Pacific, eastern Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, the eastern coast of Africa, and the waters surrounding Central America, with high risk of bycatch. A gap analysis for conservation areas revealed that only 16.44% of the whale shark distribution area was currently within protected zones, and that the protected zones were increased to from 17.51% to 22.58%, indicating a significant conservation gap under future climate scenarios.
王笑, 刘凯宇, 李增光, 万荣, 赵林林. 基于物种分布模型的鲸鲨全球空间分布与保护空缺研究[J]. 水产科学, 2025, 44(4): 622-632.
WANG Xiao, LIU Kaiyu, LI Zengguang, WAN Rong, ZHAO Linlin. Global Spatial Distribution Prediction of Whale Sharks and Future Conservation Needs Based on Integrated Species Distribution Models. Fisheries Science, 2025, 44(4): 622-632.
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