鲐鱼的资源评估探讨及其不确定性分析

doi:10.16378/j.cnki.1003-1111.21043

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Abstract To better understand the current stock status and to keep sustainable development of fishery, it is essential to conduct scientific fishery stock assessment for chub mackerel Pneumatophorus japonicus. Based on the catch and effort data of the China Fishery Statistical Yearbook from 1979 to 2019, we conducted the stock assessment for chub mackerel and explored the effects of uncertainties of input data and model parameters via sensitivity analysis in Bayesian state-space production model(Just Another Bayesian Biomass Model, JABBA). The results showed that the maximum sustainable yield is 4 650 000 t, current stock has an 83% probability being in a healthy status, and neither overfishing nor overfished is happening (B₂₀₁₉/B_MSY =1.160, F₂₀₁₉/F_MSY =0.773). Results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the prior distribution of the intrinsic growth rate and the initial depletion level basically do not affect stock assessment results. When the catchability coefficient maintains a constant annual increase, stock status estimate could worsen, changing from healthy to overfishing. The mis-report of catch does not affect stock status estimate, and including the number of fishermen in effort data could obtain more reasonable stock assessment results. In the process of conservation and management for chub mackerel in the coastal waters of China, it is essential to focus on the quality of catch data and the selection of effort data to improve the accuracy of stock assessment results and to reduce uncertainty.

Key words： stock assessment uncertainty sensitivity analysis Pneumatophorus japonicus coast waters of China

Received: 16 March 2021

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	TIAN Zhipan
	MA Qiuyun
	ZHANG Yunfei
	TIAN Siquan

Cite this article:

TIAN Zhipan,MA Qiuyun,ZHANG Yunfei, et al. Uncertainties of Parameters Associated with Stock Assessment for Chub Mackerel Pneumatophorus japonicus Based on JABBA[J]. Fisheries Science, 2022, 41(6): 915-926.

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https://www.shchkx.com/EN/10.16378/j.cnki.1003-1111.21043 OR https://www.shchkx.com/EN/Y2022/V41/I6/915

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